Turkey’s Geopolitical Leverage: A Linchpin for Europe’s Security Ambitions?

Donald Trump’s Return to the White House has made many in Europe ponder what will happen if the U.S. president decides to change his policy toward the old continent and shifts the burden of maintaining the current order onto its allies.

Photo: Map of Europe

The desire of several European countries to form some kind of "European army" has long existed. France has been at the forefront of this effort, but has been unable to realize it for two key reasons. First, no European country has a military even remotely as strong as America’s. Second, many European nations, especially in the east and north, trust Washington’s power more than the plans of European powers.

Yet, the idea of Europeans relying on their strength has never been abandoned and periodically resurfaces in public discourse. Trump’s negotiations with Russia, aimed at securing peace in Ukraine, have brought this idea back into focus. Last month, the United Kingdom gathered countries willing to aid Ukraine if Washington abandons Kyiv.

Can Europe Do Without Turkey?

Attending the summit was Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, as London recognizes Turkey’s importance. Even setting aside Turkey’s other unique characteristics and looking solely at the map, the country borders all major flashpoints in Europe and beyond—from the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Iran) to the Caucasus, the Black Sea (where Russia’s war in Ukraine rages), and the Balkans. Its influence extends even further.

"It is unthinkable to establish European security without Turkey," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared shortly after the summit. Without Turkey, "Europe cannot sustain its role as a global actor," he added. "Given that security parameters have shifted due to recent events, ensuring European security without Turkey is impossible," Erdogan said, alluding to Washington and Moscow’s dealings over Ukraine.

Days later, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Erdogan, with security dominating their talks. "If the EU wants to prevent or even reverse its loss of power and influence, it can only do so through Turkey’s full membership," Erdogan stated at a joint press conference. "We consistently stress that full EU membership remains our strategic goal. We frequently discuss with our colleagues our desire to enhance cooperation with the EU based on mutual benefit and respect."

Tusk’s visit was an ideal opportunity for Erdogan to make this statement, as Brussels has kept Ankara at a distance from EU membership for decades. Poland and Turkey have a tradition of friendly relations, with positive episodes dating back centuries, even when the majority-Muslim Ottoman Empire was an adversary to Christian Europe. These ties continued after modern Turkey’s founding, with Poland being the first European country to recognize its independence in 1923. Relations were further strengthened with Poland’s NATO accession.

NATO Proves Cooperation with Turkey Is Possible

NATO itself is proof that cooperation with Turkey is feasible on many issues. A recent example is Ukraine. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sells it weapons while maintaining good relations with the Kremlin, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia. Since the early days of the aggression, Turkey has acted as a mediator and offered its services.

For Tusk, given Poland’s view of Russia as the greatest threat, Turkey’s stance on Eastern Europe was likely of interest. Many believe these two European powers could form a key pillar of a new European security architecture, even without the U.S. and Russia. This is no coincidence, as both share a border with Russia and possess strong militaries. Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army in terms of troop numbers and is one of the few with combat experience.

What Can Turkey Offer Europe?

Europe’s ambition to play a greater global role faces immediate obstacles. The EU’s well-known weaknesses could be mitigated through an agreement with Turkey, particularly in security, where Turkey is a military power with a rapidly growing defense industry. This is especially relevant in discussions on relations with Russia and how to aid Ukraine. Turkey has even stated its readiness to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.

In other crisis zones along the EU’s and Europe’s borders, Turkey is a key player even without Brussels. With Bashar al-Assad’s weakening in Syria, Turkey has expanded its influence in the Middle East. The Damascus regime is a key card in Ankara’s hands. Through Syria, Turkish influence reaches Lebanon and Israel. Additionally, the Middle East is the source of millions of migrants heading to Europe.

Turkey could also assist the EU in the Balkans, where Brussels has struggled for decades to manage crises effectively. The flare-ups, often backed by Belgrade, show Brussels lacks the means to prevent them, acting more as a firefighter. For instance, after the clashes in Banjska, where some European forces performed poorly, Turkey stepped in to stabilize the situation, bolstering Kosovo’s security forces and sending troops to Pristina.

Turkey has a military base in Albania, troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and strong ties with Serbia, Montenegro, and Croatia. Some European politicians have shown a poor understanding of the Balkans, leaving the heaviest diplomatic lifting to the U.S., Britain, and Turkey.

Open Questions in Europe-Turkey Relations

However, unresolved issues between European states and Ankara remain problematic. In security terms, Cyprus is a major sticking point, alongside what the West frames as "rule of law" concerns—issues Brussels has criticized Turkey over for decades.

Turkey cannot resolve these issues overnight, even if it wanted to meet all of Brussels’ demands. The question is whether Europe is ready for realpolitik, the approach Ankara, Washington, Moscow, and other major players adopt when necessary. If Brussels wants to be a key global player, it must push its idealpolitik to the background.

Europe and the Middle East’s Geopolitics

The absurdity of this dynamic is that Turkey has the most problems with left-wing leaders in Europe, while those on the right tend to have better relations. Examples include Poland’s or Hungary’s right-wing figures. Despite their rhetoric of a "Christian Europe," they have found common ground with Turkey on many issues—something proponents of open societies have failed to do.

While it’s clear that these left and right-wing labels are increasingly superficial, Europe’s left seems to lack realpolitik. The case of Syria illustrates this: Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former ISIL and al-Qaeda member, has become Brussels’ partner, with the EU recently promising to lift sanctions on Syria and provide billions in aid.

What’s Next?

How the EU positions itself toward Turkey will soon become clear, as major geopolitical shifts unfold before our eyes. Until then, Ankara won’t sit idle. Erdogan could make similar offers to Trump or even Vladimir Putin. Issues that interest Trump—Israel and Iran—are in Turkey’s backyard, while Washington could help Erdogan with Kurdish matters in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, Erdogan and Trump claim to have a good relationship.

Trump’s demand that allies increase defense spending is crucial for Europe’s future. Strengthening NATO or relying on European capabilities is a key question for Turkey. In either case, Turkey stands to gain as a military power in a critical region.

The EU’s complex decision-making system and member states’ conflicting interests hinder action. But Turkey becomes a vital partner if European powers move to achieve their ambitions. Competing with the U.S., China, and Russia is already a monumental task—adding Turkey or other European powers as adversaries would make it impossible.

This article was previously published on nap.ba

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