In the past few days, several public figures, commenting on Trump's moves and his policies, have said almost the same thing – we are only at the beginning of his term, and we have four years left.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is seen as a disaster by many politicians in Europe. Long before the U.S. presidential elections, the majority of European leaders supported Joseph Biden, and after his withdrawal from the race, they backed Kamala Harris. Three weeks into Trump's new term, it has become clear why they held such a stance.
In Europe, where the majority of U.S. allies are located, many would likely say the same if they were not afraid of the White House's reaction. This is especially true for officials of the European Union, which Trump has never shown much respect for. During his first term, there was a notorious conversation with Angela Merkel, where he repeatedly asked the Chancellor to sign a trade deal between Washington and Berlin, to which she responded that it was only possible with the European Union, of which Germany is a member.
The first to respond to the new U.S. president's policies should be Estonian politician and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. The fact that there is no confirmation that Trump and Kallas have spoken since his return to power speaks volumes about how much he values her opinions. Meanwhile, Trump has already spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The case of Denmark, a long-time ally of Washington, also shows that Trump does not prioritize small European countries. In the early days of his term, Trump threatened the EU and NATO members, demanding they hand over Greenland or face potential military and economic measures.
Aligning with Trump
Such a stance from Trump towards Europe was expected. Trump is well aware that Europe depends on Washington, while European allies sometimes act as if this is not the case. This primarily concerns European security, which Washington takes care of, while Europeans refuse to fulfill their NATO obligations of allocating two percent of their GDP to defense. During his first term, Trump reminded Europeans of their obligations and threatened not to defend them for free. This prompted action, and during his and Biden's terms, almost all countries have met the required defense spending.
However, this is not enough, as most European armies, by their admission, are not ready for war. Polish President Andrzej Duda, who maintained communication with Trump even when facing potential jail time in U.S. courts, spoke this summer about allocating at least three percent of GDP to defense. Now, some are even talking about five percent, gauging public opinion.
Massive military investment by European allies could soften Trump, especially given his threats to impose tariffs, as the U.S. economy has a trade deficit with Europe. Such investment would not necessarily mean war. There are similar examples elsewhere in the world. For instance, some wealthy Arab monarchies buy weapons they will never use, while the U.S. guarantees their security. Such examples were also noted during Trump's first term.
Purchasing weapons from the United States gives Trump significant leverage regarding Russia and the war in Ukraine. It is not hard to imagine that Trump would agree to continue arming Ukraine, directly or indirectly, if European allies were to foot the bill.
Musk's Hammer
But Europe's problems with Trump do not end there. The world's richest man, Elon Musk, has been waging an ideological war against some European countries for months. Musk, whom Trump's critics call the "real" U.S. president, has recently targeted the United Kingdom and Germany. The former is a nuclear power outside the EU, while the latter is the economic engine of the Union and a country with significant influence from the Baltic to Turkey.
Musk is particularly bothered by some positions of the modern left, which he sees as disconnected from their roots. He targets illegal migrants and transgender policies, which he called "neo-Marxism" in an October 2022 interview. Earlier this year, he shared a post by J.K. Rowling on social media platform X, where she wrote that "gender ideology has undermined free speech, scientific truth, gay rights, and the safety, privacy, and dignity of women and girls." Musk commented on the lengthy post with "Absolutely."
Musk's ideological war with Europeans, after taking on the policies of U.S. Democrats, also has a personal touch. The issue of (il)legal migration is at the core of his success, as he is an immigrant to the U.S. and employs experts from around the world in his companies, which some criticize as a way to pay workers less. Additionally, his son Alexander has transitioned and now, as Vivian Jenna Wilson, refuses to have contact with him.
For weeks, Musk has been targeting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, accusing him of protecting gangs of rapists, mostly of migrant origin, during his time as a prosecutor. Musk claims that Starmer is protecting illegal immigrants in the UK, preventing their deportation, and introducing censorship in public spaces. In one of his many posts about Starmer on X, Musk asked his followers in a poll, "Should America free the British people from their tyrannical government?"
Musk's target is also the current German government. Despite having a significant company in Germany, Musk is dissatisfied with the government there. Yesterday, he posted on X that "AfD is the only hope for Germany." In recent weeks, he has supported the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in various ways, even addressing their rallies, as they prepare for general elections while other parties refuse to cooperate with them.
Trump's Strategic Advantage and the Lack of European Leadership
Those who study Trump's moves say that the U.S. president often makes statements to improve his negotiating position. In other words, Trump sometimes bluffs. But in the case of Europe, he may not need to, as the old continent is now even more dependent on the United States than before. This is especially true for Germany.
Since the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Europeans have been cutting energy ties with Moscow, making themselves dependent on the U.S. and its more expensive liquefied natural gas. On this issue, Trump has both Moscow and Brussels in a passive position. If he wants to impose new sanctions on Russian energy and if Europeans follow as allies, the price of oil and gas will rise. At the same time, Trump has ordered increased oil and gas extraction across the U.S., disregarding environmental standards that the previous administration sometimes upheld. Thus, Washington can now dictate oil and gas prices, with no guarantee that prices won't rise, potentially leading to inflation across the EU, particularly in Germany.
Europeans fell into this double trap by aligning with Biden against Russia, assuming that Washington would always have the same stance towards Europe. Now that ties with Russia are severed, rebuilding them would cost the current European leadership their political careers.
But even for better relations with Russia, European unity is a prerequisite, which under Trump will not exist if it means opposing his policies. The aforementioned Duda, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Austria's Freedom Party, Spain's Vox, and France's National Front... are just some of Trump's admirers. This unification on the new right has been acknowledged by Argentine President Javier Milei, who, along with some of the aforementioned, included himself and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the same group. All of them, Milei says, stand with Trump.
For all European politicians who disagree with Trump, there is a way out of this blind alley as a battle plan that must be fought without knowing the outcome until the very end. The idea of a common European defense without Washington's involvement, for example, advocated by France's Emmanuel Macron, will once again be relevant in the coming period, as will questions about relations with China, international trade, the development of modern technologies, access to energy and rare metals, and the development of artificial intelligence...
This plan might be more achievable in another generation of European politicians. However, Europe has long lacked politicians of the caliber of Helmut Kohl, Jacques Chirac, or Margaret Thatcher. But if Musk is right and the "only hope" for Germany, and consequently for Europe, lies with those he supports, then Europe has little to hope for in a clash with Trump and the billionaires behind him.
This article was previously published on the news portal nap.ba.
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