Turkey Erupts in Protest as Erdogan Detains Presidential Challenger Imamoglu

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a prominent opposition figure seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most formidable challenger, was abruptly barred from Turkey’s presidential race this week in a sweeping legal maneuver.

© by SM

© by SM

© by SM

© by SM

Days before his party was set to nominate its candidate, authorities revoked Imamoglu’s university diploma—a constitutional requirement for presidential bids—citing regulatory violations. He was then arrested on charges of corruption, extortion, and "managing a criminal organization," stripping him of his role as mayor of Istanbul.

Erdogan’s timing reflects a confluence of favorable conditions. Internationally, he faces little pushback: the U.S., under a Trump-era foreign policy ethos indifferent to democratic norms, dismissed Imamoglu’s arrest as a “domestic issue.” At the same time, Europe, wary of antagonizing Turkey amid security dependencies and shifting U.S.-Russia dynamics, has muted its criticism. Domestically, Erdogan’s military successes in Syria and a fractured opposition coalition further embolden him. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), once a pillar of Imamoglu’s support, has grown hesitant amid clandestine government-PKK talks, leaving protests fragmented. With three years until elections, Erdogan’s team bets economic recovery will eclipse public outrage, while legal assaults on the CHP—including a case to oust its chairman—weaken rivals long-term.

Mass Protests and Government Crackdown

The arrest ignited Turkey’s most significant wave of protests since the 2013 Gezi Park uprising, with demonstrations erupting nationwide. Tens of thousands gathered in at least 55 provinces, with crowds in Istanbul chanting slogans and waving Turkish flags outside City Hall. Riot police deployed water cannons, tear gas, and rubber bullets to disperse protesters, leading to over 700 arrests. Imamoglu’s wife, Dilek Kaya Imamoglu, addressed the crowd, calling the charges against her husband an “injustice” that “struck a chord with every conscience.”

In a message relayed through his lawyers, Imamoglu urged supporters to “defend democracy” and hailed their defiance as proof that Turkey had “had enough” of Erdogan’s rule. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) organized solidarity votes nationwide, claiming 15 million participants. Yet cracks in the opposition were evident: while Imamoglu’s supporters rallied at City Hall, DEM Party members seemed to prioritize Nowruz celebrations over joining the protests—a sign of Erdogan’s success in exploiting divisions.

Erdogan’s Two-Decade Power Consolidation

Over 20 years in power, Erdogan has been accused of systematic dismantling of democratic institutions. After surviving a 2016 coup attempt, he purged thousands of judges, replacing them with loyalists, and tightened control over media—90% of which now aligns with his government. While Turkey still holds elections, the system operates as a “competitive authoritarian” regime: opposition parties exist, but state mechanisms heavily favor Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The latest crackdown highlights Erdogan’s reliance on legal and institutional weaponization. Istanbul University’s revocation of Imamoglu’s diploma—now challenged in Turkey’s Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights—threatens his eligibility for the 2028 presidential race. Prosecutors also sought terrorism charges tied to Imamoglu’s alleged links to the pro-Kurdish DEM party, accused of affiliations with the PKK (a designated terrorist group). Erdogan’s strategy mirrors past tactics against figures like Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas but benefits now from a fractured geopolitical landscape and an opposition in disarray.

Imamoglu emerged as a direct threat after his 2019 victory in Istanbul’s mayoral race ended the AKP’s 25-year hold on the city. Authorities annulled his initial narrow win, prompting a rerun that saw him triumph by a historic margin. His reelection in 2023 further solidified his cross-partisan appeal, positioning him as Erdogan’s likeliest challenger. However, Erdogan’s recent moves—including backchannel negotiations with the PKK—have sowed distrust between Imamoglu and Kurdish voters, undermining the alliance that propelled his rise.

Economic Crisis and Public Discontent

Turkey’s economic instability—marked by soaring inflation and a currency crisis since 2018—has eroded Erdogan’s popularity, particularly among youth frustrated by unemployment and authoritarian policies. The 2024 municipal elections delivered the AKP its worst defeat, even as Erdogan mobilized state resources to aid his party. Yet with three years until the next national vote, Erdogan’s allies aim to stabilize the economy and outlast public anger over Imamoglu’s arrest. Simultaneously, the CHP faces existential threats: a court case alleging election fraud seeks to remove Chairman Ozgur Ozel, while Istanbul Municipality itself risks a government-appointed trustee if charges against Imamoglu advance.

Losing Istanbul in 2019 also severed Erdogan’s access to the city’s vast financial networks, which had funded his patronage system for decades. Retaking control of Istanbul’s resources is now a key priority, with the Interior Ministry appointing a government-aligned governor to replace Imamoglu.

Erdogan’s removal of Imamoglu marks a decisive shift toward what many see as autocracy, transforming elections into hollow formalities. By leveraging international complacency, a divided opposition, and time to suppress dissent, he seeks to enter the 2028 election cycle unopposed. Yet Turkey’s economic turmoil and Imamoglu’s relative popularity reveal vulnerabilities in Erdogan’s rule. The upcoming elections—far more than a political contest—will test whether Turkey’s democracy can withstand this authoritarian surge or succumb to one-man dominance.