French President Emmanuel Macron is attempting to improve Europe's position and restore some of his country's glory as a former great power under these unfavorable circumstances.
The U.S.-Russian negotiations over Ukraine, and subsequently over Eastern Europe and the future of relations on the continent, have been ongoing for weeks. In these challenging circumstances, French President Emmanuel Macron is striving to strengthen Europe's position and reclaim some of his nation's prestige as a former great power.
If Macron could choose when to focus intensely on foreign policy in parts of the world where French influence is limited, it certainly wouldn’t be now. At home, a political crisis is unfolding, and his party is not performing as he would like. Additionally, his popularity is far from its peak.
However, Macron must engage with Eastern Europe, trying to extract the maximum for the European Union from the United States and Russia. The EU, along with Ukraine, could likely be the biggest loser in any deal struck between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin behind closed doors.
For Paris, this is an obligation. First, France is the only nuclear power in the European Union. Second, Macron is testing two key ideas he has been working on. He has long advocated for the formation of European Union armed forces without U.S. involvement and has launched the European Political Community (EPC), which includes non-EU member states.
Macron Aims to Counter Both Putin and Trump
Since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Macron has tried to position France as a key player in Eastern Europe. This has not ended well. Many remember his meeting with Putin in Moscow, where the host seated him at the opposite end of a table over ten meters long.
Macron later aligned himself with the administration of U.S. President Joseph Biden and, alongside other European nations, supported Ukraine. He sent long-range SCALP missiles to Kyiv, making France one of the countries that particularly angered Moscow. These missiles have been used by Ukrainian forces to strike high-value Russian targets in Ukraine and Russia.
Macron didn’t stop there. He spoke of sending French troops to Ukraine, specifically mentioning the city of Odesa, which many believe could be a key factor in the Ukrainian war. Odesa, a port city on the Black Sea, is Ukraine’s only operational seaport and its gateway to the sea.
With Trump’s return to the White House, things have changed rapidly. Official Washington has since been unwilling to involve European allies in negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine. Earlier, the Kremlin had signaled to Washington that Europeans were not needed in these talks.
Macron has tried to convince Trump to include European powers at the negotiating table, but success seems limited so far, as the White House still lacks a broader vision of an agreement with Russia without its allies, especially in the context of China and its intention to focus on the Pacific after ending the war in Eastern Europe.
At the core of the negotiations between Washington and Kyiv are Ukraine’s rare earth metals, which major U.S. tech companies are eager to acquire. Talks have been ongoing for weeks over who will gain the rights to these resources, with Trump stating that they should go to Americans as a guarantee and gratitude for the aid provided to Kyiv.
France has also entered this discussion. Yesterday, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated that negotiations with Ukraine on this issue have been ongoing since October and that French industry, particularly the arms sector, will need these rare minerals "over the next thirty or forty years."
Lecornu also mentioned that France is proposing that Europeans take responsibility for Ukraine’s security. "This is an idea we intend to propose to European countries," he said, explaining the proposal for Europe to create arms reserves for the Ukrainian army. "The point of the current discussions is to ensure that the Ukrainian army can continue to defend itself, not just now but also when the guns fall silent."
European (Non-)Alignment
France’s plan to aid Ukraine and rely on European forces is currently supported by Germany and several other countries. However, complications arise here. France’s policy toward Ukraine is also backed by the current UK government, as is the aforementioned European Political Community. However, London has opposed European armed forces without U.S. involvement, and the list includes staunch U.S. allies like Poland and most Scandinavian and Baltic states.
Macron, whose presidential term ends in two years, has little time. But apart from him, there are few leaders in Europe who would dare to attempt what he is doing. The leadership crisis in Europe has been present for decades, and it is not uncommon to hear assessments that the European Union does not know what to do with itself, let alone how to compete with geopolitical giants like the United States, China, Russia, and India.
Macron is also trying to extend his influence beyond the EU. He is one of the few European leaders attempting to maintain a strong presence in almost all Balkan countries. His offers include energy projects, arms deals, investments, military missions, special envoys, and strengthening the EPC.
France is aware that its influence is limited, particularly its resources. The fact that France, along with Germany, remains the most powerful country within the EU speaks volumes about the state of the old European powers. However, this relative weakness could be an advantage for France, especially in a Europe where small states have favored joint projects for decades and where some are wary of the idea of a new hegemon emerging on the continent.
This is why Macron has repeatedly proposed joint projects to Europeans, particularly insisting that they produce most of their combat systems. The French military relies on French ingenuity, which means that joint investments could quickly change the situation on the ground. The Ukrainian war is a unique opportunity but also a danger that the EU and European powers could sink into irrelevance on the global political stage.
The transformation of France and other European states into regional powers began after the end of World War II. Over the past two decades, European powers have been losing ground in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Africa, while the U.S., Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and even smaller states have been gaining influence.
This is all the more reason for Europeans to focus on their continent, addressing issues within the EU and its periphery. Macron’s stance is well-known: there can be no EU enlargement without internal reforms, and in recent years, France has pursued a more robust policy in countries leaning toward the bloc, even at the risk of confrontation.
Although France is not a dominant power in Europe, it should not be overlooked that this nuclear power is, among other things, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a NATO member, a leading EU state alongside Germany, a major arms and equipment producer, and, more recently, the only European country seriously investing in artificial intelligence technology.
Macron’s plan is currently being tested on the issue of Ukraine. Official Kyiv has not rejected the idea of relying on European powers, though they are aware that the U.S. is currently the only real guarantor of Ukraine’s security. Simply put, Putin only fears Washington militarily, knowing that most European armies are in dire straits. But if Macron succeeds in finding countries willing to work on strengthening the European factor, the situation could fundamentally change, while opponents rely on European states that prioritize the United States. For Macron and France, this would be a success, even in the short term, if it helps "survive" Trump’s presidency.
This article was previously published on nap.ba.
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