Trump Pressures Modi: India Must Choose Between Washington and Moscow

India occupies a key place in the plans of major powers. It is now under particular scrutiny from the United States and Russia, with a possible strategic pivot of the world’s most populous nation at stake.

Photo: Narendra Modi and Donald Trump

For Donald Trump, it’s rarely enough that a country leans one way in a geopolitical dispute—he seeks complete victory, willing to risk everything to get it. The latest case is India, a country former U.S. president Joseph Biden courted to distance it from Russia and strengthen it as a rival to China.

Biden scored notable wins: India often took positions that displeased Moscow and Beijing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a nationalist, refused to support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and ensured that BRICS took no moves seriously harming the West.

In return, Modi freely bought Russian and Iranian oil, attracted Western investment, and positioned India as a bridge between Washington and BRICS/SCO members—aligning with the image Modi wants for himself.

Trump’s Return

With Trump, things are different. In just half a year, he repeatedly criticized India, claimed credit for ending its last clash with Pakistan, and imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports to the U.S.—soon raised to 50% because of India’s Russian oil purchases. Yesterday, India announced a pause in buying Russian oil.

Modi knows Trump acts without restraint when he senses advantage, using every available tool. In his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and even exchanged fire with Iran; he also quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to hurt Russia.

Washington now demands India stop buying Russian oil and weapons. For a nation hungry for development (cheap Russian oil) and foreign investment (mostly Western), this is a call to choose between the U.S. and Russia.

Trump frames the oil demand as a way to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine. On arms, he offers India F-35 Lightning fighters—considered by many the best in the world—as a continuation of Biden’s deals.

Price and Quality

India wants U.S. fighters, but money is an issue. F-35s cost around $110 million each, plus weapons, with flight hours costing $36k–$56k. Even the cheapest variants are about $80 million. Meanwhile, Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighters cost about $50 million, and Moscow has offered joint production—technically appealing given India’s existing Russian fleet and Su-30 production in Nashik.

India needs a strong air force to counter Pakistan and especially China. Experts say it requires 30–40 fighters a year, yet China has acquired 435 in the past decade while India lost 151.

Choosing Russian fighters ties to oil and broader economic projects like the North-South corridor linking St. Petersburg to Mumbai via Iran.

India Chooses

Trump wants India to take sides against Washington’s BRICS rivals, calling the bloc a threat to U.S. dominance and the dollar. He also offers oil from the U.S. and non-sanctioned states. Biden pitched India the IMEC corridor (India-Middle East-Europe), with hopes of building a “new China” in India using Western firms.

So far, Modi’s policy has followed Indian interests, championed by FM S. Jaishankar’s “The India Way” doctrine: engage the U.S., manage China, reassure Russia, woo Europe and Japan, and expand regional influence.

This has been India’s recipe for strength—great powers know it’s easier to win if India is on their side. But Trump is demanding India abandon its balancing act.

Russia has courted India for decades, even during the Ukraine war, saving it $10.5B on cheap oil since April 2022 and helping modernize its military and technology. Now, Modi must choose. Trump will not wait—he sees the moment, knowing India can’t shield itself entirely from the fallout of alienating Washington or Moscow. For Trump, India could be a major win or loss; for Modi, the ideal outcome would be to keep his current position.

The article was previously published on nap.ba.

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