Stalled War, High Stakes: Is Russia Preparing a Fresh Offensive Amid Trump–Putin Talks?

The war in Ukraine has long been in a phase without a major offensive, but both sides continue to face heavy blows. While U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin negotiate, significant military maneuvers are ongoing on parts of the front within Ukraine.

Photo: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin

Had someone offered the official Kyiv the current balance of forces on the battlefield in July 2025—since February 24, 2022—it would surely have been welcomed. The Russian army, once attributed near-mythical power, is stalemated in eastern Ukraine and unable to crush one of Europe’s poorest nations, now hoping that Trump makes a mistake at the negotiating table.

In reality, this balance of forces has been long established. Both sides are locked into a war of attrition without a clear pathway to total military victory. One side continues inflicting heavy blows, but it hasn’t shifted the strategic balance. True, Russia is advancing in some eastern regions, but experts say that at the current pace, it could take decades to reach Kyiv. Still, the war leaves lasting consequences for both nations.

Is There a Winner?

From Moscow’s standpoint, Russia is winning—having seized mineral resources and industrial assets in Donbas and elsewhere, annexed Crimea (saving Kyiv rent payments for military bases), attracted Russian tourism revenue, and severed Ukraine’s access to affordable oil and gas as well as transit fees. Ukraine’s breadbasket in Zaporizhzhia now feeds Russia instead, costing Kyiv millions.

From Kyiv’s perspective, Ukraine is winning—they’ve survived, maintained state functions, and preserved their army. In fact, their military is stronger than ever and inflicts major losses on Russia. Proponents of Kyiv’s success argue that Moscow’s territorial gains have been minimal—no greater than those made by Russian-backed rebels before the full-scale invasion. Kyiv also has Western backing, while Russia remains isolated in Europe, and the war has spilled beyond its borders.

This dynamic has prompted strategic shifts. Ukraine’s recent successes stem largely from intelligence-driven operations behind enemy lines. Meanwhile, Russia is amassing forces in areas from which Trump plans to extract mineral concessions in exchange for continued U.S. aid to Kyiv. Until a final deal is reached, that territory remains a battlefield.

Military strategists agree that frontline lines will likely hold for the coming period. Yet, to improve leverage at the negotiating table with Trump and Kyiv, Russia keeps attacking around Pokrovsk in the east, while grouping forces in Ukraine’s northeast, particularly in Sumy region.

Who Can Endure Longer?

Earlier this week, Trump shocked allies again by lifting sanctions on multiple Russian companies, banks, and individuals—most notably Rosoboronexport, the state’s official military equipment exporter. He also paused U.S. military aid to Ukraine pending an assessment of U.S. military stockpiles.

This was not unexpected. Trump’s talks with Putin have included sanction relief, which Moscow values far more than territorial gains. His move may be seen as a goodwill gesture—similar to his recent relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China.

U.S. officials defend the decision by arguing that while the EU continues to propose more sanctions, American Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in late April that additional U.S. sanctions would prolong the war by “another two years” and that diplomacy should take priority.

Halting military aid to Ukraine was an inevitable step—not merely a tactic to pressure Volodymyr Zelenskyy into concessions toward Trump and Russia. The U.S. has already diverted interceptors and offensive weapons to Israel, confirmed Zelenskyy, forcing Washington to reallocate its limited resources among Ukraine, Israel, and its own forces.

Russia welcomed these moves enthusiastically, having long claimed the war would end swiftly if Ukraine stopped receiving arms. But Kyiv is beginning to reduce reliance on U.S. support. European determination to sustain aid despite Trump’s threats has catalyzed the growth of Ukraine’s domestic defense industry.

Ukrainian companies now manufacture weaponry that often replaces Western imports. European states and firms assist these efforts. In a short time, Ukraine became a leader in drone production—especially marine drones—and improvised air-defense systems combining Eastern and Western tech. The innovation of the Ukrainian military regularly surprises the world.

Frontline Conditions Shaping Negotiations

Ukrainian strategists now focus on fights around Pokrovsk and potential Russian offensives near Sumy.

Pokrovsk is a vital logistics hub and a defensive barrier protecting Kyiv’s supply lines to Donetsk region. If Russia captures Pokrovsk, it could open a path to Dnipropetrovsk, which would mark the sixth Ukrainian province under Russian military control. Such gains would inflict a blow to Kyiv’s legitimacy and citizen morale. As it stands, Russia seems on track to reach Dnipropetrovsk region.

At the same time, reports indicate Russian troop build-up in Sumy region. These forces have previously launched attacks on Kyiv (February 2022) and now threaten the road connecting the capital with Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Allegedly, Russia has concentrated tens of thousands of soldiers near Sumy to stretch Ukrainian defenses, while simultaneously attacking near Pokrovsk. On the other side, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back in Sumy, mined the area, reinforced positions, and deployed elite units. While sizable Russian breakthroughs haven’t occurred, skirmishes, rocket strikes, drone attacks, and infantry footholds several kilometers inside Ukrainian territory are ongoing. With autumn approaching—and weather soon limiting major maneuvers—it’s assumed Russia has only a few months left for major operations this year.

In April, the Ukrainian military launched operations in Sumy region, briefly crossing into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian commander Oleg Sirski said last week the aim was to tie down top Russian units there, preventing redeployment to Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

However, results have been limited—especially for attackers. After three years of war, both armies suffer manpower shortages, and advanced technology use is increasingly critical. Western reports confirm Ukraine relies on drones—some with AI targeting that independently select targets after hours in the air. Drones now even resupply front-line units. These examples illustrate how difficult it is to launch large-scale offensives while protecting frontline troops.

All signs suggest breaking enemy lines will be extremely difficult without suffering heavy casualties. In months when whispers of a cease-fire grow louder, both militaries hesitate to launch major operations—fearing catastrophic losses while politicians redraw maps. Yet, both sides aim to strengthen their frontline positions along the 1,200-km line, bolstering negotiating leverage. As Trump told Zelenskyy in their tense White House meeting, the goal is clear: show the opponent they “have no cards to play.”

The article was published previously on nap.ba

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