Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Forge an Alliance Amid the Illusion of Middle East Peace

Last week, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement, which Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif described as a framework similar to NATO, intended to connect predominantly Muslim countries.

Photo: Shehbaz Sharif and Mohammed bin Salman

Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, triggered a wave of changes across the Middle East. Israel has used the war to try to pursue its regional ambitions, looking far beyond the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The latest proof of this is the attack on Hamas members in Qatar, a country that for years served as a mediator in negotiations between the Palestinian organization, Israel, and the United States.

The attack did not sit well with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. After Israel bombed, in addition to Doha, Gaza, Tehran, Damascus, Beirut, Sana’a, and other locations, it is not hard to conclude that other Arab cities are within range—and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not shy away from the use of force, fully backed by the United States.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee reminded the Arabs last week where things stand: “Israel is our only true partner.”

Riyadh’s Response

Since Hamas’s attack on Israel, Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has been under dual pressure. Arabs and Muslims worldwide expected Riyadh to help civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, while the West pressed it to recognize Israel. Essentially, this disrupted MBS’s plans to reform the kingdom.

Part of those reforms included reconciliation across the region, which meant ending the war in Yemen and mending relations with Iran. This was a major victory for Chinese diplomacy at the time—one that threatened to upset the established balance of power in the Middle East, much to the displeasure of Israel and the United States.

Yet, after the events of the past twenty months, MBS now understands that his plan could be thwarted by a military strike—or even an assassination. Israel has carried out assassinations of Arab and Iranian leaders, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah reportedly struck Netanyahu’s home with a drone.

The United States’ unconditional support for Israel should serve as a wake-up call for the Arab world. Professions of friendship, lucrative business ties, and a network of U.S. military bases across Arab countries have not been enough for Donald Trump’s administration to take a neutral position in any confrontation involving Israel—no matter the reason or the opponent.

It was therefore natural for Saudi Arabia to turn toward Pakistan—a country with which it enjoys exceptional relations. Deepening ties with a nuclear power was merely a question of will, as the two states already maintain strong cooperation in almost every field.

Mutual Defense

According to a senior Saudi official who spoke to Reuters, the agreement is “the culmination of years of discussion. It is not a response to any particular country or specific event, but rather the institutionalization of a long-standing and deep cooperation between our two nations.”

This institutionalization means that the two countries have pledged to defend each other in case of an attack by a third party. The agreement was signed in Saudi Arabia by MBS and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Officials stated that this means Pakistan would defend Saudi Arabia even with nuclear weapons.

The agreement was not well received in Washington, as both signatories are U.S. allies. Their alliance sends a direct message to Washington—that some now doubt its guarantees. Even worse for the United States, within both countries there are voices calling for further distancing from Washington. Opposition leader Imran Khan, arguably Pakistan’s most popular politician, advocates for aligning his country more closely with Russia and China.

Pakistan’s concern over a Middle East dominated by Israel and the United States was also evident during the Israeli-American strikes on Iran. Islamabad did not hide its support for neighboring Iran, and media reports speculated that Pakistan provided Tehran with concrete assistance.

This complex geopolitical maneuvering by Pakistan is closely linked to its border situation and domestic stability. Pakistan’s rivalry with nuclear-armed India, its porous border with Afghanistan, and its hard-to-control frontier with Iran all compel Islamabad to cultivate friends and foster stability wherever possible. The U.S.-Saudi involvement in the region—aimed at defeating the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and undermining Tehran’s government after 1979—has resulted in some of those armed groups now posing a threat to Islamabad itself.

A Muslim NATO?

Pakistan’s vision for solving regional problems was laid out last week by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif in an interview, where he called for the creation of a defensive alliance of Muslim countries, modeled after NATO. Asif also described neighboring Afghanistan as a “hostile state,” accusing the Taliban government of arming militant groups operating in Pakistan.

In an earlier statement, Asif admitted that Pakistan is still paying the price for its 1980s involvement in toppling the USSR in Afghanistan and for supporting the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. In a long-ago interview, MBS himself—while consolidating power and defending his position before allies in Washington—remarked that the West had encouraged radical Islam during the Cold War, particularly in Afghanistan, and that he wanted to change that.

Conflicts Are Far From Over

The Saudi-Pakistani defense agreement has encouraged many in the region, and some have already proposed that other states join. Support is coming from various quarters. It is worth recalling that in June this year, the Muslim Brotherhood sent a letter of support to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the midst of Iran’s conflict with Israel. Not long ago, that same organization and Iran were on opposing sides in the Syrian war. Both cases show that in the Middle East—beneath the surface of seemingly stable, long-standing regimes—movements are stirring and new plans are being forged.

Washington, too, is aware that the Middle East is always on the brink of transformation. The U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Trump’s close ally and special presidential envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, said this week that he does not believe in peace in the Middle East: “When we say peace, that’s an illusion. There has never been peace in the Middle East. There probably never will be, because everyone is fighting for legitimacy.”

Barrack’s words have been echoed by many before him. Yet they come at a time when new alliances are forming and wars continue to rage. Syria, under Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former member of al-Qaeda and ISIS, is preparing to normalize relations with Israel after decades of hostility. Pakistan has pledged to defend Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons. Iran and its allied forces in Lebanon and Yemen are preparing for another round of clashes with the United States and Israel. Even Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq are not spared from instability, while Trump threatens the Taliban and calls for the U.S. military to return to Afghanistan. Palestinians continue to suffer.

All of this gives the Saudi-Pakistani agreement additional weight, as it could soon be put to the test. Nearly everyone in the Middle East expects new wars; most simply hope they won’t be the next ones forced to fight. In Barrack’s words, the region remains suspended between the illusion of peace and the struggle for survival and power—and the events of the past twenty months show that no one is untouchable.

The article was published earlier on nap.ba

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