Last week, agencies reported clashes between "remnants of the Bashar al-Assad regime" and forces loyal to the Damascus government in the Syrian provinces of Latakia and Tartus. Social media has been flooded with footage of the killings of Alawite civilians.
The final days of Bashar al-Assad's rule remain a mystery to the public, with a conspiracy of silence seemingly surrounding the details of the event. No one has yet provided a full account of how an army that fought for over a decade collapsed in just a few days. More precisely, it is unclear whether the military was truly defeated, whether all forces were disarmed, or whether everyone abandoned the country.
Media outlets close to Lebanon's Hezbollah described part of the drama in the vicinity of the city of Homs during those days, which proved to be a key defeat for Assad's government. Homs is an important crossroads, connecting the capital Damascus and the coastal region of Syria, where Alawites, to whom Assad and many other former Syrian officials belong, predominantly live.
These media outlets reported that some of Hezbollah's best fighters arrived for the decisive battle for Homs, despite the ongoing war with Israel. In several smaller clashes, Hezbollah fighters emerged victorious, but then inexplicable events began to unfold. The Syrian army approached Hezbollah and other militia members, demanding their withdrawal and surrender of positions. Shortly thereafter, the army handed over those same positions to the Syrian Al-Qaeda, which had long since rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and now sits in Damascus with the understanding of the West and numerous other countries.
Where the Syrian troops and their most prominent fighters have gone remains unknown to the wider public. Media reports suggest that part of the army went to Iraq, part to Lebanon, and part surrendered to the new authorities and were subsequently dismissed. However, some of the most elite units of Assad's army reportedly retreated to the Alawite Mountains, a natural boundary between the Syrian coast and the interior, inhabited by the minority Alawites. During the rebellion against Assad, this area remained under government control despite attacks by rebels and terrorists from dozens of countries.
Just last week, this area was the site of clashes between the new Syrian authorities and rebels allegedly part of Assad's army. This part of Syria was also the scene of civilian killings by HTS or groups affiliated with them. In video footage shared online by the attackers, Alawite civilians are seen being tortured and killed, labeled as "infidels" and "pigs."
According to information from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has been anti-Assad since its inception, over a thousand people have been killed since Saturday, including around 745 civilians, among them women and children. The remaining casualties were from the ranks of the new Syrian authorities and rebels.
Sectarian Division
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, a Sunni and de facto president of Syria, has repeatedly stated that there will be no sectarian violence and that the new government extends a hand of cooperation to all. His forces justified the killings of opponents by claiming they were former members of Assad's regime who committed crimes against Sunnis and regime opponents. On Friday, al-Sharaa warned that security forces should not "overreact... because what sets us apart from our enemy is our commitment to our values." With the support of forces aiming to quell the rebellion and pursue Assad loyalists, he added that "when we abandon our morals, we and our enemy end up on the same side," stating that civilians and prisoners should not be mistreated.
What exactly is happening in Syria these days still has at least two versions. But based on what the public knows, dozens of soldiers from the new government have been killed in ambushes by alleged former Assad soldiers. HTS members reportedly killed hundreds of civilians. Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of civilians have sought refuge in Russian military bases still present in the country. Among them are Syrian Christians fleeing fear of HTS and affiliated militias.
Damascus claims that the forces behind the attacks are "loyal to Assad." The public has no information on whether Assad maintains any connection with forces in Syria, as he has been under Russian protection in Moscow for months. It is unlikely that Assad could issue orders from Russia without Kremlin approval.
Major Western media outlets have shown little interest in Syria since Assad's fall, as the primary goal of Western governments in the country was achieved with the regime's collapse. Since the "Syrian opposition" has now come to power, having received media and other support from much of the West for years, some media have decided to relegate Syrian stories to the background. It is worth recalling the reactions of Western media and officials when Assad-led Syrian forces committed or were accused of crimes against civilians. Crimes against civilians from Assad's sect are now of little importance to the West.
Violence in the part of Syria where Alawites live was expected from the moment Assad left the country. It was clear that the new authorities would seek revenge and punish prominent members of the previous regime, and that foreign fighters, mostly from Salafist sects, would show cruelty towards "infidels," meaning practically anyone could be their victim.
Al-Sharaa has largely prevented such scenes in Damascus, but he cannot control the entire country. There are several reasons for this. First, the new government seeks legitimacy and wants to present itself as inclusive. Second, al-Sharaa does not control all the forces that overthrew Assad. Third, the new Syrian government does not control the entire territory of the country. In the northeast, Kurds supported by the United States refuse to submit to Damascus, and Israeli forces have reached the outskirts of the capital without resistance from HTS or al-Sharaa. The rebellion in Latakia and Tartus indicates that others are also dissatisfied with the current situation.
Al-Sharaa explains his policy by the weakness of the central government and the devastation of Syria. But more and more people are skeptical of this narrative. Not long ago, al-Sharaa, as a member of ISIL and Al-Qaeda, fought against the United States, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, and numerous Shiite militias. His retreat from the Israeli army and hunt for "remnants of the regime" have raised eyebrows. For example, some Syrian groups have clashed with the Lebanese army and Hezbollah in the border area between the two countries, while al-Sharaa has claimed that Iran and its allies are the greatest threat to his rule.
Al-Sharaa has simultaneously turned a blind eye to Israeli attacks and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcements that his army will protect the minority Druze, who live on the strategically important Golan Heights, and sent troops to the outskirts of Damascus. Netanyahu warned that he would not allow "extremists" in Damascus to attack the Druze after an exchange of fire between two opposing militias, one allegedly loyal to the government and the other belonging to the minority group.
The Israeli Prime Minister is thus redrawing the map of Syria by advancing into the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, giving him a strategic advantage over Damascus forces and creating conditions to semi-encircle Hezbollah, as HTS views the Shiite group as an enemy.
Rebellion or Social Agreement?
The massacre of Alawite civilians has been condemned by Iran, while Lebanese Hezbollah has denied accusations of being behind attacks on forces loyal to Damascus. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have supported the Damascus regime.
Last week's conflict is not the first of its kind since Assad's fall. Remnants of the army and various groups have ambushed government forces in other parts of the country, and civilian casualties have been recorded in similar scenarios to Latakia and Tartus, albeit on a smaller scale.
All this could be a prelude to renewed conflict in Syria, potentially involving numerous countries. With the collapse of Assad's regime, Iran has been pushed out of the Syrian chessboard, and Israel has entered the game. Turkey, the United States, and Russia remain players. Thus, Syria today has at least four foreign armies, at least two of which were not invited by the central government in Damascus.
Al-Sharaa has attempted to reconcile these differences in several statements. Some progress has been made, but rebel Kurds refuse to lay down their arms, relying on Washington and the US military, despite Turkish threats to disarm.
Alawite leaders criticize the new Syrian ruler for failing to negotiate with their leaders, despite promising inclusivity for all Syrian groups and communities. Agencies report that there has yet to be a meeting between Alawite representatives and the new Syrian leader, nor are there any indications that such a meeting will occur, unlike with other minority groups.
Al-Sharaa has restored optimism among many Syrians after meeting with Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Druze, and Joseph Aoun, the Christian president of Lebanon. In addition to them, al-Sharaa has met with senior officials from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, many EU countries, and representatives of the United States, even Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, known as a secular politician who considers the Muslim Brotherhood, close to the new Syrian government, a terrorist organization.
However, it is indicative that there have been no meetings with Alawite representatives, who are a branch of Shiites. Additionally, the target of the Damascus government is the Shiite Hezbollah. Beyond efforts to prevent Iran from supplying Hezbollah with weapons via land routes through Iraq and Syria, border clashes involving the Lebanese army have also been recorded. Earlier this month, al-Sharaa stated that "the presence of Iranian militias under the previous (Syrian) regime posed a strategic threat to the entire region," and that Tehran "encourages instability" in many countries, continuing his stance on Iran since he became known to the public.
The New Syria
Al-Sharaa has promised not to build a state where one man makes all decisions, but there are still no signs of when political parties will be allowed to form or when elections for Syria's highest bodies will be held.
On the other hand, some groups, particularly Alawites, fear being ruled by a former member of ISIL and Al-Qaeda. Syrians are well acquainted with the methods of these groups from recent years. Al-Sharaa is not alone. Various "emirs" from these two groups have been appointed to other positions, facing serious accusations.
Thus, the Syrian question remains open, with many wondering if Syria exists as a state. But even if it exists as a state, it certainly does not exist as a secular Arab republic, a bastion of pan-Arabism. The new Syrian government prioritizes Sharia law. The problem lies in interpreting religious laws and their application, given that many Syrians from all sects desire a secular state as it once was.
This presents one of the greatest dilemmas for the new government—choosing a social order and allowing sects to be what they are, or imposing the dominance of one over the others. The new government has stated that it rose against Assad because, among other reasons, he favored the sect from which he hails.
But even if al-Sharaa finds a salvific solution, he would not be able to decide alone. The behavior of, for example, Israel in southern Syria and the West's stance towards it indicate that they expect a certain pattern of behavior from it, primarily meaning it does not threaten Tel Aviv's interests, or else they will impose sanctions and seize territories under various pretexts. And they are not the only ones. Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates also have interests in Syria. Whether al-Sharaa can endure all this is a question, as is whether many war-weary Syrians can or will.
This article was previously published on PISJournal.net.
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