New Axis Emerging? Russia and Iran Sign Pact as U.S. Watches

About ten days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Law on the Ratification of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran. Tehran announced that it would soon ratify the agreement as well, marking the beginning of a new phase in the relationship between the two countries.

Photo: Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin

When considering future threats to the United States, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard:

"Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'anti-hegemonic' coalition not united by ideology but by shared grievance."

This diplomat and political scientist, who influenced U.S. foreign policy for decades, also noted that such a coalition could only materialize if Washington was blind. Whether Washington was blind or intoxicated by its Cold War victory is less important than the fact that this tripartite alliance has been developing in various forms for decades.

A new phase in Russia–Iran relations began on January 17 of this year, when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the agreement with Putin in Moscow. It has been undergoing ratification ever since.

An Agreement for a New Era

At the end of March, Putin submitted the agreement for ratification in the Duma. Three weeks later, he signed the law finalizing the ratification, and the agreement officially entered into force.

The Russia–Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement is a substantial document. It contains 47 articles and covers areas such as defense, energy, counterterrorism, finance, agriculture, industry, science, technology, and culture—for the next twenty years.

Russian media described the agreement as consolidating Russia and Iran’s status as strategic partners. On the Iranian side—where the deal was received with greater optimism than in Russia—it was seen as a diplomatic victory for the new Iranian administration that replaced the one led by President Ebrahim Raisi, who, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash on May 19 last year.

Still, it would be inaccurate to attribute the agreement solely to the current Iranian administration. As early as 2020, then-President Hassan Rouhani called for a new agreement to replace the existing 2001 Tehran–Moscow deal. Rouhani was strengthening ties with Russia and China as a counterweight to poor relations with the West and had pushed the Kremlin to sign the agreement quickly.

This is a success for Iran for at least two reasons. First, the 2025 agreement is more comprehensive and more favorable to Iran than the 2001 version. Second, Putin agreed to the deal amid Western isolation following the invasion of Ukraine and a need to seek support beyond Russia’s borders. One reason Putin had previously hesitated was concern for Israel’s interests and a desire to negotiate with the West.

Putin’s delay in signing the agreement led to its ratification just as he was trying to repair broken ties with Washington and secure peace in Ukraine. The ratification also coincides with negotiations between Tehran and Washington on Iran’s nuclear program and Donald Trump’s threats of possible military action.

A New Framework for Enhanced Cooperation

Critics who downplay the agreement argue that it is full of generalities and offers no firm guarantees—such as a mutual defense clause in the event of an attack.

But realists know this was never expected. First, the agreement was signed while Russia was at war with Ukraine. Second, both countries are in regions where political shifts are constant, which could place them on opposing sides at any time.

The agreement begins by affirming:

"Based on the deep historical ties between the Iranian and Russian peoples, the closeness of their cultures, spiritual and moral values, shared interests, strong neighborly relations, and broad opportunities for cooperation in political, economic, military, cultural, humanitarian, scientific, technical, and other fields."

It reaffirms the strategic relationship between the two countries and aims to strengthen cooperation across various domains. It also expresses a joint commitment to shaping “a new just and sustainable multipolar world order based on sovereign equality among states,” in line with UN principles.

The agreement outlines specific areas of cooperation. Essentially, it provides a framework for a new level of bilateral relations. For instance, in January, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ali Shadmani, stated that Tehran had purchased Russian Su-35 fighter jets—though he didn’t specify how many or whether they had been delivered. Last week, Moscow and Tehran also agreed on the annual delivery of 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, and Russia pledged to finance the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Iran.

Trump’s Pressure

Had this agreement been signed a few years ago, it might have been compared to Iran’s 2021 agreement with China or similar deals with Venezuela and Syria. In Russia’s case, it might have drawn comparisons with its pact with North Korea.

But with Trump returning to the White House, the agreement has taken on new significance. The pressure Trump exerts on Moscow and Tehran to make deals on his terms may be offset by this pact. Continued isolation is inevitably pushing these two states into deeper cooperation—just as Brzezinski had warned. This year’s examples of Russia–Iran collaboration—on gas, weapons, and nuclear technology—make that clear.

Trump is demanding peace in Ukraine from Russia in exchange for, among other things, restoring Russian energy exports to Europe. The 55 billion cubic meters of gas Russia is now planning to send to Iran is roughly equivalent to what once flowed through Nord Stream 1 to European consumers.

Also notable is the sale of Russia’s top fighter jets to Iran, at a time when Trump and Israel are discussing a potential strike on the country. Threats from the U.S. and Israel to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities are being answered by Moscow and Tehran with plans to build new nuclear plants—following Moscow’s assistance in constructing Iran’s first nuclear reactor in Bushehr in 2007.

The agreement gives Tehran and Moscow a foundation for long-term cooperation—and, in the short term, a bargaining chip in negotiations with the West. No doubt, China is also part of this strategic equation.

Trump’s pressure on China—from tariffs to sanctions dating back to his first term—speaks to the broad geopolitical front that has been forming over the years. It’s no surprise that Russia and Iran, and especially China, are holding their ground in this contest with Trump, because they know there is an alternative to any deal with Washington. Trump’s desire to pull Russia away from China and Iran requires a serious offer from the Kremlin. Meanwhile, his interest in cutting a deal with both Iran and Russia is pushing them to constantly reevaluate their “strategic partnership” forged in January.

Thus, the great game now has even more complex directions to its outcome.

The article was previously published on nap.ba

---