If Tusk or Starmer know the answer, they will likely find a way to strengthen Europe. Until then, even London’s best intentions to help Kyiv will depend on Washington’s will and strength, as well as European unity in the face of fear of Russia.
Last weekend, leaders from numerous Western countries, at the invitation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, gathered in London intending to find a response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, following a series of unexpected moves by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since the end of World War II, the United States has been the driving force behind Anglo-Saxon and Western policy. Until this year, Washington was the place where policies were forged to minimize Moscow’s influence outside Russia to the greatest extent possible.
The focus of this policy shifted over time. In the early years after World War II, the emphasis was on Europe, ensuring that Russian tanks from Eastern and Central Europe did not reach the Atlantic. As the years passed, almost the entire world became a battleground between capitalism and communism, Washington and Moscow, with Europe divided by the "Iron Curtain."
Eastern Europe and London
In recent years, things have changed. China has taken center stage on the global scene, and some old Russian strongholds (such as Warsaw or Prague) have permanently switched sides. However, a drama began on Russia’s borders that has kept Moscow and the West on opposite sides for about a decade.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 is a continuation of the war in the east of the country and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Now, other factors are at play, as Trump has shaken the Western alliance. Simply put, Trump is not overly focused on containing Russia, as he intends to deal with China, as he did during his first term.
But official London has different plans. Any attempt by Russia to push toward Europe’s warm seas and the central part of the continent triggers alarm bells in London. And if London were to try to extend its influence toward Russia’s borders, Moscow would respond harshly, as Ukraine recently experienced when it sought to move closer to NATO and distance itself from Russia.
The history of relations between London and Moscow has shaped some of the most important processes in Europe. The two capitals have fought directly and through proxies, supported rivals to the detriment of the other side, and at times jointly drawn spheres of influence. Even alliances in wars against third countries have not changed the fact that London and Moscow view each other’s geopolitical plans as a threat.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, London has sided with Kyiv. The UK has allocated enormous resources to the Ukrainian military, sent weapons, trained Ukrainian troops, and exerted diplomatic pressure on Russia...
Moscow has not forgotten this. Russian propagandists have repeatedly stated that in the event of a war between NATO and Russia, London should be the first target. Russian media have shown simulations of nuclear strikes on the British Isles, the activation of bombs that could trigger tsunamis and wipe out British cities, and questioned the capabilities of the British military...
Perhaps the greatest insult to London is Moscow’s public appeal to Washington to negotiate peace in Ukraine without Europeans, particularly without the British. In these Russian statements, London’s interests are dismissed, and British policy is seen as confrontational.
The London Summit
Despite all the blows and Trump’s wavering, London has not given up on the fight against Russia. How deeply rooted this policy is in the British political establishment is evidenced by Boris Johnson’s address to parliament shortly before leaving the prime minister’s office. Among the advice he gave to his successors on how to lead the country, he particularly emphasized that they must not abandon Ukraine.
Sunday’s summit confirmed that even Labour is following the Conservative Johnson’s guidance. The British, as masters of protocol, paid attention to the smallest details, from showing support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after he clashed with Trump at the White House, to the reception and seating arrangements for those invited to the summit. The "coalition of the willing" was gathered on two sides of the table, with Starmer, Zelensky, and French President Emmanuel Macron presiding in the middle.
How important Ukraine is to London was shown by Starmer’s words that this is a "once-in-a-generation" event. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk summed up the gravity of the situation with a striking statement: "It’s a paradox, listen to how it sounds: 500 million Europeans are begging 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians. If you can count—rely on yourself!"
The summit sent a message that Kyiv will not surrender to Russia and that those present will help in this fight, although many did not commit to what that aid might look like. At the informal meeting, in addition to the presiding leaders and the Polish prime minister, the heads of state and government of Italy, Germany, Spain, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Romania, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Canada, the leaders of the European Union, the NATO Secretary General, and the Turkish foreign minister were also present.
Starmer and Macron argue that peace in Ukraine is impossible without Kyiv and Europe’s involvement and are asking Trump to bring them to the table with the Russians. In return, the UK and France will try to take on part of the burden of defending Ukraine, relying on European capabilities.
"Today we are at a historic turning point," Starmer said from London, explaining that "Europe must take on the burden" and then gain the support of the United States. In other words, continue the policy designed by the Biden administration, for which Trump has no time. Trump’s calls for Europe to arm itself are reaching European leaders, but not quickly enough.
In January, Tusk declared that "the era of comfort is over" and called on Europeans to strengthen their military capabilities. Tusk is one of the European leaders who has precisely summarized Europe’s problems and pointed out where the continent should go if it wants to strengthen itself against Russia. From London, at the summit, he noted that Europe and Ukraine have 2.6 million soldiers compared to Russia’s 1.1 million, that Europeans have 2,091 combat aircraft compared to Russia’s 1,224, and that Europeans have 14,400 artillery pieces compared to Russia’s 5,157. In other words, quantity is on Europe’s side.
But more important than these numbers is Tusk’s reflection on the "paradox" that 500 million Europeans seek protection from 300 million Americans against 140 million Russians. The most important question is how Europe ended up in this situation and who is to blame. If Tusk or Starmer know the answer, they will likely find a way to strengthen Europe. Until then, even London’s best intentions to help Kyiv will depend on Washington’s will and strength, as well as European unity in the face of fear of Russia.
The article was previously published on nap.ba.
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