February brought optimism to the residents of Lebanon as a government was finally formed and a president was elected earlier. On the other side of the world, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brought a gift to U.S. President Donald Trump, which The Independent described as "morbid."
The formation of the Lebanese government took months. The story became particularly relevant after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, when Nawaf Salam was appointed prime minister and tasked with forming a government.
Some believed that this was the right moment to reshape Lebanon's political landscape, as Hezbollah had lost its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a number of officials. The goal was to eliminate Hezbollah as a significant factor in Lebanon's political life, with Beirut promised aid in return.
Such an offer implies that Lebanon is the focus of larger states, and no one is hiding it. The United States and France have promised financial and military aid, Saudi Arabia investments in Lebanon, and neighboring Israel peace if Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is removed from power.
American and Israeli Interests
The U.S. has backed Israel for decades, regardless of what Tel Aviv does. But just last year, Washington tried to maintain a semblance of neutrality in mediating between Lebanon and Israel. With Trump's return to power, Washington has shed formalities—Israeli interests are now American interests.
On Friday, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, a Christian, was visited by U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus. Unlike her boss, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who, like his predecessor Amos Hochstein, tried to maintain diplomatic protocol, Ortagus has no brakes.
Lebanese media, especially those close to Hezbollah, reacted angrily after Ortagus stated that the entry of the Shiite party into the new government was a "red line" for the United States. Additionally, she wore a ring shaped like a six-pointed star, known as the Star of David, a clear reference to her adopted Judaism during her mission in Baghdad.
In other words, she publicly pressured the Lebanese to ensure Hezbollah would not be part of the new government, exactly as Netanyahu had demanded. France, for example, issued a much milder statement, calling for all parties to focus on reconstruction and reforms in Lebanon while respecting its diversity.
However, the Lebanese had different plans from Ortagus, given the balance of power and the fact that, according to unwritten rules, Shiites hold a significant share of power in one of the world's most complicated political systems, with Shiites making up about a third of Lebanon's population. After her statement, Hezbollah supporters blocked the road she was supposed to travel on.
The New Government
Nawaf Salam faced an extremely difficult task of reconciling the interests of domestic and foreign actors in Lebanon. This specifically meant that he had to secure support from the Lebanese parliament, led by Shiite politician Nabih Berri, head of the Amal party, an ally of Hezbollah. Berri has been the contact person between Hezbollah leadership and Western envoys since the start of the war with Israel.
Thus, Sunni Prime Minister Salam, with the consent of others, formed his cabinet with 24 ministers, five of whom were Shiites. Hezbollah and Amal appointed four, including the very important finance minister, while Salam appointed the fifth.
This development has been variously commented on in Lebanon, with some claiming that Hezbollah suffered a defeat, while others argued that it had extracted the maximum under the circumstances.
Some say that the Shiites and Hezbollah have lost a third of their seats in the government for the first time and the ability to block decisions and that some Shiite ministers are aligned with the West, concluding that this is a result of the weakening of the Shiite movement and official Tehran after the war with Israel.
Others argue that Hezbollah got what it wanted—a breather for reorganization. Indeed, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Hezbollah must undergo transformation, turn into local forces, and seek new supply channels from Iran, as the new government in Damascus does not allow this to continue through Syria. Additionally, Hezbollah is seeking the reconstruction of Shiite community homes, as the Israeli army targeted these sites, even as its withdrawal from southern Lebanon is expected.
Ceasefire Expires, Netanyahu Sends a Message to Trump
The ceasefire agreed upon by Hezbollah and Israel expired at the end of January and was unilaterally extended by Israel, under Western pressure, until February 18. Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire. Dozens of civilians attempting to return to their homes in southern Lebanon were killed, Shiite-populated areas were bombed, and the Lebanese army was prevented from reaching the border. Hezbollah, however, did not fall into the trap and refrained from responding to the attacks.
But Netanyahu wants war and does not hide it, believing he is on the path to creating a "new Middle East." During his recent visit to Trump, he gifted him a golden pager. The British Independent called this act "morbid." The golden pager, inscribed with "press with both hands," is an allusion to the operation against Hezbollah, in which dozens, including children, were killed and hundreds wounded.
In Lebanon, some were particularly angry because the pager was placed on a tree stump, which they believe was an olive tree. Olive branches are a symbol of peace, and the olive tree often symbolizes the presence of a people in a certain territory, as some trees grow for hundreds of years. Palestinians and residents of southern Lebanon see the olive tree as a metaphor for their presence and survival, and the Israeli army has sometimes destroyed these trees for various reasons.
"To President Donald J. Trump, our greatest friend and greatest ally. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," reads the gift brought to Washington. A source told The Telegraph that Trump responded upon receiving it: "It was a great operation."
The Lebanese Puzzle
What will happen in the region can be guessed if the ceasefires in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip collapse and if Netanyahu does not get what he wants. Trump has already approved Israel for a new arms sale worth more than seven billion dollars, and some media report that the new administration, after decades of refusal, is ready to deliver eleven tons of a heavy bomb known as MOAB (Mother of All Bombs), intended for destroying fortifications, which would be a message to Iran and Hezbollah, whose leader was killed when his bunker was reportedly hit with eighty tons of explosives.
While waiting to see what Netanyahu and Trump will do, Salam must reform Lebanon, initiate reconstruction, and prepare the country for elections next year. The main thing Trump and Netanyahu will be watching is the status of Hezbollah, specifically whether and to what extent the group will disarm. All parties refer to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006 and interpret it differently, especially the part about who has the right to bear arms in southern Lebanon.
At yesterday's meeting of the Lebanese government, this was one of the topics. The text, which is supposed to become the government's position, states that the state has a "monopoly on weapons," meaning that the Lebanese army, trained and supported by the U.S., is responsible for the country's security. The text does not mention "resistance," a reference to Shiite militias. According to Al-Akhbar, Amal and Hezbollah persuaded Prime Minister Salam to include Article 51 of the UN Charter, which emphasizes the "inherent right to individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations, until the Security Council takes measures necessary to maintain international peace and security."
This is a continuation of the dispute over what Hezbollah will look like in the future, which is being prepared, as announced, for the historic moment of Hassan Nasrallah's funeral with participants from 79 countries on February 23 in Beirut. Tens of thousands of people are expected to take to the streets of Beirut that day, confirming that Hezbollah leads Lebanese Shiites, who, many warn, are now in fear and more reliant on each other after Nasrallah's assassination and the fall of Assad in Syria.
Hezbollah-affiliated media these days highlight that Nabih Berri told Morgan Ortagus at a meeting on Friday, "Israel is absolute evil," and that everyone must adhere to Resolution 1701, especially the part that demands Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. At the same time, Hezbollah's rivals in Lebanon express hope that the party's dominance in Lebanon has ended and that a time of stability is coming.
But both sides are aware that a small country like Lebanon, located amid regional tremors on the Iran-Israel-Saudi Arabia-West axis, will not decide its fate. On the border between Lebanon and Syria, clashes between local groups and smugglers were reported this week, Trump is developing a plan to resettle Palestinians from the devastated Gaza Strip and develop tourism there, and Netanyahu is pushing him into a confrontation with Iran. Thus, Lebanon is simultaneously very close to both a new war and a period of stability.
This article was previously published on the portal nap.ba
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