top of page

Gaza Ceasefire: Raising More Questions Than Answers

Writer's picture: Armin SijamićArmin Sijamić

For several days now, media outlets around the world have been trying to determine the winner of another round in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, other questions are far more important, such as what the future holds for Israel and Palestine, and why the latest round of fighting lasted nearly sixteen months.

Crowds walk through debris and ruins of destroyed buildings, creating a somber atmosphere. Dust and rubble dominate the landscape.
Photo: The Destruction Inside Gaza

These days, often with a partisan tone, some media outlets and individuals are attempting to answer the question of who won the war in the Gaza Strip. Depending on which side they are closer to, their "verdict" leans in that direction. The truth is that Israel did not achieve what it had outlined at the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, but it is also true that Hamas's attack was the prelude to the destruction of the Gaza Strip on a scale rarely seen elsewhere.


The agreement to a ceasefire, and then to the exchange of people held in prisons, was perceived as a catastrophe by part of the Israeli public. Particularly vocal in condemning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were his far-right partners in the government. Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, as expected, were the loudest. Smotrich, the Finance Minister, has threatened to bring down the government if Israel does not occupy the Gaza Strip.


The Influence of Washington


Even before assuming office in the White House, Donald Trump credited himself for the ceasefire that would be implemented in phases and which, as such, could always be violated. Joseph Biden credited his administration, although he acknowledged that Trump's team was also involved in the negotiations.


This sudden agreement, when everything on the ground suggested that a ceasefire would not happen, was expected if we look back at the history of U.S. presidential inaugurations and the conflicts between Israel and Hamas, or conflicts in the Middle East in general.


Let us cite two examples. When Ronald Reagan took office on January 20, 1981, after defeating the incumbent President Jimmy Carter in the elections, Iran released 66 hostages it had held for 444 days. Barack Obama assumed office on January 20, 2009, and Israel began withdrawing its troops from the Gaza Strip the day before after over 1,200 Palestinians had been killed there.


Thus, there is no doubt that Netanyahu was forced into a ceasefire and that the pressure came from Washington, the only entity capable of exerting such influence on Tel Aviv. Without the world's greatest power backing it, Israel would have significantly less strength.


In this context, let us cite the statement of Ben Saul, a United Nations expert on human rights, who said in December that "Germany and the United States supply 99% of the weapons exported to Israel," adding that these two countries could "overnight" stop the war in the Gaza Strip.


That people have been dying needlessly in Israel, the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen is also evidenced by the words of Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who told Sky News on Friday that the agreement reached was essentially the same as the one from December 2023 and that "thirteen months were lost negotiating details that have no significance and are not worth a single life lost in Gaza or a single hostage life lost due to bombing."


It is worth recalling that Qatar, along with Egypt and the United States, mediated the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and leaders of this Palestinian group have resided in this Arab country for years.


Tallying the Damage


Until the public is informed of what happened behind closed doors in the aforementioned negotiations, let us only mention some of this war's consequences.


In Hamas's attack on Israel, around 1,200 people were killed, and hundreds were taken hostage. The Gaza Strip has been leveled to the ground, and reports indicate that nearly every structure has been damaged or destroyed, with the scale of destruction wrought by the Israeli army compared to the effects of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan. Over 47,000 Palestinians have been killed, and over 110,000 have been injured. Tens of thousands of people are still missing. The greatest victims in the Gaza Strip are children and civilians.


Thousands of people have died in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Dozens of civilians have been killed in attacks on Israel, the north of the country has been displaced, and the economy and tourism there have almost come to a standstill. People have also died in the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks. The number of soldiers lost by Israel is a secret, as are the final losses of Hamas, Hezbollah, (pro-)Iranian militias, the Iranian army, and the Houthis...


Israeli and Hamas leaders are on international wanted lists, some countries have severed diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, and people around the world have expressed outrage at Netanyahu's policies and those who support him. Israel also faces accusations of genocide.


Questions Without Answers


Even after all that has been enumerated, the question that has been at the heart of the conflict in the Middle East for decades remains: Can the Palestinians obtain a state that would peacefully coexist alongside Israel? In his second term, Trump will face this question and the need for clear solutions. Both Biden and Trump have shown that Washington can force Netanyahu to agree, and in Israel, many voices have been calling for peace with their neighbors for decades.


Hamas is weakened but still exists. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Hamas has mobilized as many new fighters as it has lost in the war with Israel, which is not surprising since even refugee camps were not safe places for those who decided not to participate in the war.


The survival of Hamas was expected, and it was known from the beginning that at least the idea would survive, as some of its leaders live outside the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas, under Chinese mediation, has decided to submit to the authorities in the West Bank after the end of the war.


Hamas has thanked all those who helped them, highlighting Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias. This message did not sit well with many in the Muslim world, but it is also believed in Tel Aviv. Last night's operation by the Israeli army in the West Bank, which Hamas has never controlled, was accompanied by Netanyahu's "explanation" that it is part of a "systematic and determined approach by the military against the Iranian axis wherever it sends its weapons—in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank)."


Upon entering the White House, Trump, whose administration has a record number of supporters of Israel, was granted a brief period of peace in the Middle East but also faced the question of a Palestinian state and the belligerent Netanyahu, who does not abandon his policies. Some are already questioning whether Trump will change Washington's policy towards the Middle East or whether the conflicts will continue for the same reasons.



The article was previously published on the news portal nap.ba.

 

Commentaires


bottom of page