Presidential Elections in Ecuador: Noboa Declared Winner, Opposition Refuses to Concede

On April 13, the second round of presidential elections was held in Ecuador. The victory went to the incumbent president, Daniel Noboa, in an electoral race that is hard to compare to any other.

Photo: Daniel Noboa and Luisa González

How security has deteriorated in what was once a peaceful Ecuador was the main topic of this year’s general and presidential elections. Consequently, the poor economic situation also became a central issue, as it is a consequence of the drug cartel war that has devastated the country, something President Daniel Noboa has tried to halt.

Voters were primarily concerned with security, the economy, and the rule of law. After the first round in February, Noboa and left-wing candidate Luisa González advanced to the second round. Noboa won by seventeen thousand votes, less than one percent. He received 4,527,606 votes, and González 4,510,860, with a voter turnout of 82 percent.

However, polls indicated that Luisa González had better chances in the second round. Nearly all public opinion agencies, including those close to the authorities, gave the opposition candidate the edge and predicted her victory. Supporting the likelihood of her win was the February result of her party, which secured 67 seats in the national parliament out of 151. Noboa’s party won 66 seats. Additionally, it was assumed that Noboa would have a smaller reservoir of votes after candidates from the political center and right were eliminated.

In addition to a 2024 murder rate of 38.76 per 100,000 people—a slight decrease from 2023’s rate of 46.18—state data from late last year shows that only 33.87 percent of Ecuador’s working-age population was employed. In January and February of this year alone, over 1,500 murders were recorded—the highest ever in Ecuador.

April Elections

During the campaign, both Noboa and González publicly exchanged accusations against one another, including admissions from both candidates that individuals close to them were involved in scandals. This was partly due to the agreed format of the televised debate, which allowed participants to ask each other questions that had to be answered with a short “yes” or “no,” followed by an explanation.

The public thus heard that one of Noboa’s family companies had been repeatedly involved in cocaine smuggling to Italy and Croatia. It was also heard that González was part of a group caught in criminal activity. Noboa’s camp claimed that González had ties to various criminal clans—claims she denied. The debate between Noboa and González, held just days before the vote, was a major political event. Supporters of the incumbent president claimed that this was the decisive moment for many voters, as the left-wing candidate, in their view, showed her “true face.”

However, González did not perform worse than her opponent in the debate. The lawyer often sounded more convincing than the young President Noboa (37). Her selection as the presidential candidate of the Citizen Revolution party likely has much to do with her eloquence and persuasiveness.

Luisa Magdalena González Aldiva (47) may have most closely embodied the profile of a person capable of defeating a millionaire incumbent and returning Ecuador to the stability of the era of her mentor, Rafael Correa. Her life was meant to demonstrate that the struggle pays off. She married at 15, became a mother at 16, and was divorced by 22. As a single mother of two, she completed law school in Ecuador and defended two master’s theses, one at the prestigious Complutense University of Madrid. She then became a presidential candidate, a member of a regional parliament, and a state official in Correa’s administration.

Her image is also unique. She proudly identifies as a single mother and calls herself a “Manabita” due to her origin in the province of Manabí. She describes herself as an evangelical Christian who reads the Bible and has tattoos, she says reflect her vow to God. On social media, she presents herself as an animal rights activist and a woman who leads a healthy, athletic lifestyle and advocates for the decriminalization of abortion. She even revealed some of her chest tattoos during the televised debate, something she had done before. For this, she was accused by some of trying to sexualize Ecuadorian politics.

Nonetheless, González is much more than a social media figure or self-promoter. She is a true “political animal,” as Aristotle might describe. Her political journey began in the right-wing Social Christian Party, before she joined Correa’s camp. During his presidency (2007–2017), she held various state positions, including in diplomacy. Eventually, she became president of the party Correa led, who, after being sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption, fled Ecuador and now lives in Belgium.

In the campaign, she accused Noboa of a lack of public safety, corruption, high unemployment, and familial ties to drug cartels. Noboa’s family is involved in banana distribution—shipments that often carry cocaine. Ports in the Mediterranean are particularly noted for this. González claimed that drugs from Ecuador had reached Italy and Croatia via companies linked to the president’s family—a claim Noboa acknowledged but denied personal involvement.

Some media outlets have reported on Balkan cartels, with a recent focus on Albanian groups. These reports claim that Balkan cartels are more brutal than Mexican or Colombian ones and more efficient, as they do not operate under a single cartel. They broker deals between Latin American, American, Mexican, and European groups and then manage the logistics of transporting goods and money.

The scale of the trade is reflected in the fact that 73 percent of the world’s cocaine, mainly produced in Colombia and Peru, passes through Ecuador.

But González’s strongest card in this campaign was Rafael Correa. A vote for González was a vote for Correa’s return to the country. González described him as her mentor and advisor and insisted the charges against him were politically motivated. If she had won, he would have been part of her team.

Noboa’s Policy

González’s clear alignment with the former president brought her loyal supporters, but also sworn enemies. That’s why Noboa played the anti-“correísmo” card, opposing the policies of the former president. What some called “21st-century socialism,” as Correa’s policies were often dubbed, was portrayed by his opponents as a path that would turn Ecuador into another Venezuela, replacing democracy with dictatorship and isolating the country internationally.

This stance by Noboa was a double-edged sword. Correa had leveraged the rise of left-wing governments across Latin America and enabled Ecuador’s economic development. During his tenure, the country was almost a peaceful oasis in Latin America. The murder rate in 2019, two years after Correa left office, was 6.85 per 100,000.

In just a few years, Ecuador saw a complete collapse of its security. Powerful cartels flooded into the country, which did not know how to respond. In addition to inter-cartel killings, civilians, soldiers, and police officers were also caught in the violence. Kidnappings are common, and people fear leaving their homes. Corruption has flourished. Ecuadorians, according to polls, do not trust government institutions. The military enjoys the highest level of trust, with 65 percent support. Few people want to invest in such a country.

The rise of the young Noboa to power is a result of this situation. He was a member of parliament until May 2023, when the president, Guillermo Lasso dissolved parliament and called for early elections in October. Noboa entered the race to serve the remaining 16 months of Lasso’s term—and won. That was González’s first unsuccessful attempt to become Ecuador’s first female president.

Violence was ravaging the country. Noboa assumed office in November 2023 and declared a state of “internal armed conflict” in January 2024. He deployed the army and police to the streets and achieved a modest reduction in murders, from 8,237 in 2023 to 6,964 in 2024. Violence continued. One presidential candidate was killed in the previous elections, and heavily armed military and police guarded all the candidates during the campaign.

Noboa saw this as an opportunity to become a new Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, known for his uncompromising war on gangs. Even before gaining admiration from U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican allies, Bukele had become a star in Latin America, offering other countries a “recipe” for combating crime.

Noboa seized the opportunity. Just days before the election, he brought in Erik Prince, founder of the notorious Blackwater. Prince, a Trump ally, announced a crackdown on drug cartels. Noboa called this “strategic alliance” a turning point in the fight against gangs in Ecuador.

Earlier, Noboa had advocated for a legal change allowing foreign countries to establish military bases in Ecuador. His obvious target was the U.S. military, which he hoped would help in the fight against the cartels. As a result, American influence in Ecuador would grow, while the left-wing political bloc advocating national sovereignty would weaken.

Noboa also promised voters a million new jobs in four years, foreign investment, a fight against Ecuador becoming another Venezuela, an end to corruption, and better schools and universities. He supports market liberalization—contrary to the left—but adapted some policies for the campaign, including offering incentives to start businesses.

Polarization and Election Results Not Accepted by González

This approach led to clear polarization: for or against the left. To shift focus to Ecuador’s condition, González promised to end violence, create two million jobs in four years, pursue a sovereign foreign policy, and build a welfare state. She accused Noboa of hospitals without medicine, schools in disrepair, and being out of touch as a millionaire. Regarding Prince’s presence, she called it an insult to Ecuador’s army and police. She repeatedly called Noboa a “liar” during the televised debate.

However, the situation in Ecuador led to complete militarization. Some see this as the beginning of Noboa’s autocracy—something not unfamiliar in Latin America. Before the election, some cities were isolated, borders were closed, and security forces filled the streets.

Noboa’s policies—business incentives and city lockdowns—appear, at least according to González’s post-election claims, to be key to his victory. Few in the opposition saw this coming. The full picture would only become clear after the election.

Citizens rushed to the polls. Thirteen million were eligible to vote, and voting is mandatory for those aged 18 to 65. The penalty for not voting is a fine. Turnout in the second round was 87 percent. Noboa received 5,858,472 votes; González, 4,674,616—55.62 percent versus 44.38 percent. Compared to the first round, Noboa gained 1.3 million new votes, while his opponent added just over one hundred thousand.

The opposition was in total shock. González claimed there was a “grotesque” theft of the election. Correa, who is very active on social media, posts dozens of messages daily. In one, he stated that the result was “mathematically impossible,” with a probability of less than one percent.

Noboa rejected the allegations, saying the overwhelming margin speaks for itself. His supporters told the left they didn’t want Ecuador to become another Venezuela, and that González’s campaign had opened people’s eyes.

Observer missions from the Organization of American States (OAS), the United States, and the European Union reported no major irregularities. Even RETO, which supported González, implicitly agreed and congratulated Noboa, leaving the Citizen Revolution without its strongest party ally.

González is not giving up and is filing complaints with authorities, which she claims are controlled by Noboa. She called on everyone to reject the results and for the election commission to open all ballot bags and recount the votes. On social media, she posted a few compromised polling station records as evidence of alleged fraud.

Her complaints prompt a brief recap of her candidacy process. On June 13, 2023, when she attempted to register her presidential candidacy with supporters, police used pepper spray and tear gas against them, explaining it as a response to aggressive behavior by her followers. On June 16, her candidacy was rejected, only to be accepted four days later after corrections. These months-long obstructions, González claims, were part of a conspiracy against her.

In her post-election complaint, she stated that Noboa was not properly registered, that the electoral commission changed polling locations at the last minute due to weather conditions, that her party’s observers reported the use of unsigned and unstamped materials, and that overseas voting was restricted. She also said that Noboa declared a state of emergency in seven historically left-leaning regions just days before the election. She argued that the business incentives were, in fact, vote buying.

In other words, González claims the militarization of Ecuador was a prelude to emergency rule in some provinces, which influenced the results, and that cash incentives were nothing but vote buying. These, she believes, were the keys to Noboa’s victory.

The Ecuadorian public does not share the leftist politician’s certainty. So far, the response has been weaker than she would like. As it stands, there was either no electoral fraud or it was executed perfectly. That’s why the aftermath will be interesting to follow.

González can expect a decision on the annulment of the election by May 24, as that is when Noboa is set to be sworn in and begin his four-year term, and the continuation of his battle against the left in an unstable Ecuador.

This article was previously published on PISjournal.net

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